Russia's gaming success



THE RUSSIAN LIMITED AIMS SECRET.

The current international system has several ongoing conflicts which have the great powers taking sides and engaging in such proxy wars. These states have put in place strategies in the war gaming. Russia is placed among the powerful states club along with the United States, China and Britain. The approaches used by the Russians however, are those of a weaker state. One of the scholars of war, T.V Paul in his piece Asymmetric conflicts: War initiation by weaker powers discusses some of the means and ways that can be used by these countries or rather any parties in a conflict.

Attrition or manoeuvre strategy, blitzkrieg and the limited aims strategy could be applied. The United States and Russia have kept on the cold war traits of unending competition in fostering their interests. Evaluating Russia’s configuration of its war involvement explicitly displays the limited aims strategy. This is an approach that has less exposure to several or prolonged conflicts. The assumption is that such means is preferred by actors that have no resource base and capacity to expend in fighting. The Crimea and Syrian conflicts are the only cases that have had the Kremlin sending its personnel in recent years. Limited aims strategy does not focus on fully defeating an opponent but achieving political scores and capturing intended targets.

The Crimean crisis gave Russia an opportunity to shove off, US and NATO influence in Ukraine. This attracted sanctions against the regime but in the long run it was able to set foot on Crimea, plan a plebiscite on seceding from Ukraine and using the separatists to bring down aircrafts. There was no further extension of aggression within that territory but the military had already set camp and making it impossible to overrun its establishment, resulting in an offensive-defensive aspect of strategy. This move evoked so much praise for Vladimir Putin at home and he was viewed as a hero. This was a classic example of the limited aims strategy influencing local political opinion and disenfranchising the Americans of their grip on an important flank of its ally.

The United States have seemingly applied the attrition strategy. Their military has presence almost globally. This is possible for a country with such power but this might strain its military and give an upper hand to the Russians. America has faced a lot of opposition by other actors due to such a bloated presence. Locally voices of dissent are also growing loud against such scale of interventionism.

Syria is lately the battleground between the two powers. Their strategic computations are being inculcated. If Russia has a taste for limited aims but the United States decides to prolong the war how futile could that be? Russia has a great number of allies including Iran which is the new kid on the block after sanctions against it were removed and the Turks have joined the pact too. Can these friends help Russia to hold on longer and secure a reasonable win? Israel which is America’s ally have played isolationist and defensive. How can its decision to go into Syria influence the direction of war? These are some of the considerations that must be in the minds of strategists on such a war theatre.

There is a probability that the Syrian crisis will take more time than anticipated and the Islamic State holding ground.

The United States needs to reinvent its strategies with a bias to limitations as a reaction to Russia’s successful scheme in war. Generally Russia is achieving its strategic goals and retaining influence in Europe and Middle East which gives it an upper hand in the energy-propagated wars. This also shows that Russia is acutely aware of the dynamics in the strategic environment and pulling a first in cost-benefit analyses.

Upon rebuilding and restructuring the KGB, Russia will further bring on board the intelligence aspect of strategy and increase its lead over other great powers. Limited aims strategy is instrumental in the success of Russia’s attainment of a strategic balance against the United States.

There are indications that Russia might consider going back to Afghanistan, where it previously failed. The Afghans have the time, while the Americans had the watches. How will this upset the US game which have been trailing overtime despite large presence?  The Afghanistan groups have an unshakable will to keep fighting. With limited aims Russia’s stakes will be low, but it can pull a better score compared to the Americans. If this happens, the Kremlin will have earned the “Special One” acronym.

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